If Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik both sign with the Rockets, Houston will have one of the youngest rosters in recent memory.
C: Asik 26, Montiejunas 22
F: Parsons 24, White 21, Jones 21, Patterson 23, Morris 23
G: Lamb 20, Lin 24, Martin 29
Clearly they will be threats to unseat Kentucky in next year’s Final Four.
The Rockets changed their “poison pill” offer to Jeremy Lin to make it more difficult for the Knicks to match. Now the contract calls for Lin to make nearly $15mm in year three of his contract. If the Knicks match, they will have four players making a combined $77mm in the 2014-2015 season. Can the Knicks afford that?
Hornets receive
Ryan Anderson (23-yr old, ’13 WARP 6.6, ORAPM 3.1, DRAPM 0.6, 4-yr, $34-36mm)
Magic receive
Gustavo Ayon (26-yr old, ’13 WARP 3.3, ORAPM -0.2, DRAPM -0.1, 2-yr, $3.4mm)
Verdict
I love this sign-and-trade for the Hornets, who will have the league’s most improved player at a reasonable cost. Ayon impressed in his first year in the league, but Anderson is a much better bet. The 23-yr old Anderson will join Anthony Davis to give the Hornets one of the best young nucleus in the league. They should let Eric Gordon join the Suns, because he does not deserve a max contract.
Jeremy Lin might leave the Knicks for the Rockets (4-yr, $30mm). Goran Dragic left the Rockets for the Suns (4-yr, $34mm). Steve Nash was traded from the Suns to the Lakers (3-yr, $27mm). Now if Ramon Sessions leaves the Lakers for the Knicks, then we will have made a full circle! How do these point guards compare using advanced metrics?
Jeremy Lin (23-yr, ’13 WP48 0.144, Proj WARP 2.6, 2.8, 2.9, 2.8, ORAPM 0.5, DRAPM 0.9)
Goran Dragic (25-yr, ’13 WP48 0.099, Proj WARP 3.6, 3.8, 3.9, 3.8, ORAPM 0.4, DRAPM -0.7)
Ramon Sessions (25-yr, ’13 WP48 0.094, Proj WARP 4.2, 4.6, 4.8, 4.9, ORAPM 1.4, DRAPM -1.4)
Steve Nash (37-yr, ’13 WP48 0.128, Proj WARP 5.7, 4.5, 3.4, ORAPM 4.7, DRAPM 0.4)
Nash is the best of these point guards now, but could age rapidly. I think his contract (3-yr, $27mm) is fair, so Phoenix did well to obtain four draft picks for him. Dragic seems slightly overpriced at 4-yr, $34mm. I would rather have Jeremy Lin, especially since he pays for himself in terms of merchandising and advertisements. Sessions could be a bargain pick up for a patient buyer.
Nets receive
Joe Johnson (30-yr old, 2013 projected WARP 7.5, ORAPM 2.2, DRAPM -0.7, 4-yr, $89mm)
Hawks receive
Jordan Farmar (25-yr old, ’13 WARP 2.0, ORAPM -0.2, DRAPM -1.1, 1-yr, 4.25mm)
Johan Petro (26-yr old, ’13 WARP 0.3, ORAPM -3.2, DRAPM 0.2, 1-yr, $3.5mm)
Anthony Morrow (26-yr old, ’13 WARP 0.8, ORAPM 0.1, DRAPM -1.2, 1-yr, $4.0mm)
Jordan Williams (21-yr old, ’13 WARP 0.9, ORAPM -0.2, DRAPM -0.9, 1-yr, $0.8mm)
Deshawn Stevenson (30-yr old, ’13 WARP -0.5, ORAPM -2.8, DRAPM 0.4, sign and trade)
Lottery protected #1 pick in 2013
Verdict
I love this trade for the Hawks. The Nets get the better player, but Johnson’s contract is one of the worst in the game. Johnson is projected to generate 26 WARP over the next four years, which means that a fair contract would be 4-yrs, $45mm. Trading Johnson to the Nets gets rid of over $40mm of negative surplus value for the Hawks. Time to short the Nets!
Kevin Garnett (35-yr old, ’13 WARP 6.4, ORAPM 2.1, DRAPM 3.6, 3-yr, $34mm) stays with the Celtics. I like this signing for the Celtics, even though Garnett’s projected WARP will decline over the next three years (6.4, 4.8 and 3.4). They’re overpaying him in year three, but he’ll be a productive player next season.
Gerald Wallace (29-yr old, ’13 WARP 4.2, ORAPM -0.8, DRAPM +2.9, 4-yr, $40mm) stays with the Nets. The Nets slightly overpay for Wallace, who brings a defensive energy to the Nets.
Houston receives
2012 1st round pick (#18)
Minnesota receives
Chase Budinger (23-yr, 2013 projected WARP +3.3, ORAPM +0.7, +0.5 DRAPM, 1 yr, 0.9mm)
Verdict
Fair. Budinger is a solid young player who will make only $0.9mm before entering restricted free agency in 2013. On the open market, Budinger could be worth 3.3 WARP*1.6+1 = $6.3mm. The #18 pick in the draft is worth around $1.7mm per year for four years, so the exchange seems to be a fair one. Houston will reportedly attempt to package their picks (#14, #16, #18) for a bigger prize (e.g. Dwight Howard).