They Predicted Linsanity

Wages of Wins and Hoops Analyst both claim to have forecasted Jeremy Lin’s greatness.  Call me a skeptic.  My problem with these systems that translate college statistics into NBA performance are:

* They do not take strength of schedule into consideration.  Putting up great numbers against the Ivy League is a lot different from putting up great numbers against the Big Ten.
* They do not consider the college players who never make the pros.  Since they include only players who eventually made the NBA, their analysis suffers from survivorship bias.

I hope to develop my own system that addresses these issues.  Until then, I’m not convinced that these analysts are as clairvoyant as they claim.

edit:  Hickory High does not claim to translate college performance into NBA performance.  Instead, it uses similarity scores to compare draft prospects from different years.

6 thoughts on “They Predicted Linsanity

  1. David says:

    one of the guys who ran one of my basketball leagues called it too in this blog: http://www.goldenstateofmind.com/2009/12/15/1201646/bow-to-the-jeremy-lin-movement-b-o

    this is actually how i started following jeremy… but he has no credibility since hes not a professional scout or anything

  2. Ian Levy says:

    This is Ian Levy, the creator of the system you linked to at Hickory-High. I appreciate your skepticism of my system, but I want to point out that I try to make very clear that my system is not designed to translate college statistics into NBA performance. It was a reaction to draft comparisons based on subjective factors. Just because my system finds a similarity between Ike Diogu and Derrick Williams, does not mean I’m implying their NBA careers will be similar. I’m just saying their college statistical profiles were similar. It’s then on you, me and any other reader to evaluate other factors to decide if that similarity helps inform how a prospect’s career might turn out. In my Jeremy Lin/James Harden piece I explained that I saw similarities that went well beyond their college numbers. I tried to make this all clear in my description of the similarity system. If you feel that distinction is not clear enough, please let me know and I’ll work on the language.

  3. [...] back, we blogged our skepticism about the analysts who claimed they predicted Linsanity.  Daryl Morey, GM of the [...]

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